文 | 法提赫·比罗尔 国际能源署署长

2022年1月13日

最近一段时间，欧洲发现自己处于一场由天然气市场动荡引发的国际能源风暴中心。这场危机正在对政府、企业和家庭产生严重影响，了解这场危机的原因，并从中吸取正确的教训，对于未来向更可持续、更安全和负担得起的能源供应过渡至关重要。

最近几周和几个月，天然气和电力价格飙升至创纪录高位，尤其是在欧洲和一些主要的亚洲市场，这造成了潜在的重大经济影响，包括对电力公司、其他企业和工业部门以及消费者，都有多重负面影响。

在某些情况下，危机还导致政府干预以限制损害。这些影响可能会产生持久的影响，超出我们今冬在北半球看到的市场紧张局势。能源价格的上涨还导致了更广泛的价格通胀，这正在影响到世界各地的许多经济体。

不幸的是，我们再次看到有人声称，天然气和电力市场的波动是清洁能源转型的结果。这些断言具有明显的误导性。这不是可再生能源或清洁能源危机，这是天然气市场危机。

重要的是要根据当前市场动荡的原因提供可靠的证据。正如我们在最近的《2021年世界能源展望》中指出的那样，管理得当的清洁能源转型有助于降低能源市场的波动性及其对企业和消费者的影响。今天这场危机的根本原因在别的地方。

图说：不同情景下，大宗商品价格冲击可能对发达经济体2030年平均每户家庭能源费用的影响（单位：美元）。

来源：IEA

01

欧洲天然气市场供不应求

在国际能源署，我们专注于数据告诉我们发生了什么。我们看到，影响天然气行业的一系列问题，包括去年全球经济异常迅速的反弹、关键天然气基础设施的停运和维护，以及俄罗斯供应不足，正在推动欧洲更广泛的能源市场动荡。

虽然液化天然气(LNG)运输为欧洲天然气市场提供了一些额外的供应，但它们的运输时间受到限制，远慢于管道运输。地下储存仍然是欧洲天然气市场短期灵活性的主要来源。然而，低于平均库存水平（截至1月初，库存约为50%左右，而过去10年的平均库存水平接近70%)造成了进一步的供应安全担忧，特别是在冬末寒流的情况下。这就是为什么 1 月初价格和供应的不确定性仍然很高，大部分供暖季节仍未到来。

我们还看到欧洲天然气市场存在强烈的“人为紧缩”因素，这似乎是由于俄罗斯国有天然气供应商的行为造成的。与阿尔及利亚、阿塞拜疆和挪威等其他管道供应商不同，俄罗斯2021年第四季度对欧洲的出口与2020年同期相比减少了25%，与2019年的水平相比减少了22%。这就是为何近几个月来我们看到的天然气市场价格异常高的重要原因。

在目前的低基准线上，我们估计俄罗斯可能会将对欧洲的交货量增加至少三分之一，即每月超过30亿立方米。这几乎相当于欧盟每月平均天然气消耗量的10%，相当于一艘新的液化天然气油轮每天向欧洲运送一整批天然气。再加上目前高水平的液化天然气流入，这将大大缓解欧洲天然气市场的压力。

图说：2020 年 10 月至 2022 年 1 月各种能源价格的演变（%）。

来源：IEA

02

电价影响：碳价推高了电价，但天然气价格是主因

天然气市场的动荡已经蔓延到欧洲电力市场，这些市场通常依赖天然气作为边际燃料，因此在经历高价格和波动时会受到影响。低于平均水平的水电输出和较低的核输出加剧了这种情况，这凸显了对基本负荷供应来源和灵活性进行充分投资的必要性。

更高的碳价格也起到了推高电价的作用，但这一点需要放在大背景下考虑。我们估计，天然气价格大幅上涨对欧洲电价的影响比碳价格上涨的影响大近8倍。

尽管风电在欧洲夏季异常低于平均水平，但风能和太阳能光伏为满足2021年第四季度的欧洲电力需求做出了宝贵贡献。与上年同期相比，风力发电增加了3%，太阳能发电增加了20%。

03

给未来的教训：政府如何应对能源安全挑战

虽然今天的市场波动不能追溯到气候政策，但这并不意味着实现净零排放的道路会一帆风顺。正如国际能源署多年来一再警告的那样，如果我们不能解决当前能源投资的根本失衡问题，市场可能会进一步动荡。

世界各国一直没有进行足够的投资来满足其未来的能源需求，今天仍然是这样。清洁能源投资正在逐步回升，但仍远远不能以可持续的方式满足日益增长的能源服务需求。到2030年，它需要增加两倍，才能走上一条将全球变暖控制在1.5摄氏度以内的道路。

加大对低碳能源技术的投资，包括可再生能源、能源效率和核电，是摆脱这一僵局的出路。但这需要迅速发生，否则全球能源市场将面临一个动荡和再动荡的时期。能源效率是政府、企业和消费者减少燃料市场波动风险和增强抵御能力的一个特别强大的工具。

天然气和电力安全之间的相互依赖不会很快消失。预计天然气在未来多年仍将发挥重要作用，作为灵活性和后备来源，特别是在需求季节性变化较大的经济体，比如欧洲。

在欧洲，各国政府应在国家和地区层面将天然气储存纳入供应安全风险评估的一部分，包括与非欧盟国家实体控制储存相关的风险。还应完善法规，以确保存储水平足以满足最终用户的需求，并向所有拥有天然气零售组合的商业运营商分配强制性的最低存储义务。

此外，有关透明度和拥塞管理的规定有助于确保最佳利用可用存储容量。

在全球层面上，扩大国内来源的低碳能源供应提供了一个降低排放的机会，同时也解决了与化石燃料进口和市场波动相关的能源安全问题。然而，在一个可再生能源丰富、电气化程度更高的能源系统中，潜在的能源安全漏洞并不会消失。政策制定者需要密切关注新的清洁能源供应链，特别是如锂、钴和稀土元素等许多关键矿物的地理集中度，这些都是许多清洁能源技术的关键组成部分。

在我看来，今天的情况突显了这样一个事实，即如果能源系统在关键要素上过于依赖一家供应商，它们将面临重大风险。今天，它是天然气；明天，它可能是其他东西，比如锂。这就是为什么我敦促各国政府现在就采取行动，应对今天和未来的能源安全挑战。

【中文编译来源：环球零碳】

Today, Europe finds itself at the heart of an international energy storm driven by turmoil in natural gas markets. Understanding the causes of this crisis – which is having serious repercussions for governments, businesses and households – and drawing the right lessons from it is essential for the transition to more sustainable, secure and affordable energy supplies in the future.

In recent weeks and months, natural gas and electricity prices have spiked to record highs – most notably in Europe and some major Asian markets – causing potentially significant economic impacts. These include multiple negative effects on power companies, other businesses and industrial sectors, and consumers – in some cases, resulting in government interventions to limit the damage. These effects are likely to have a lasting impact beyond the market tensions we are seeing this winter in the Northern Hemisphere. The increases in energy prices have also contributed to broader price inflation that is affecting many economies worldwide.

Unfortunately, we are once again seeing claims that volatility in gas and electricity markets is the result of the clean energy transition. These assertions are misleading to say the least. This is not a renewables or a clean energy crisis; this is a natural gas market crisis. It is important to work from a sound evidence base on the causes of the current market turbulence. As we showed in our recent World Energy Outlook 2021, well managed clean energy transitions can help reduce energy market volatility and its impacts on businesses and consumers. The underlying causes of today’s crisis lie elsewhere.

The tightness in European natural gas markets

At the IEA, we focus on what the data tells us. When we do so, we see that a range of issues affecting the natural gas sector – including last year’s exceptionally rapid global economic rebound, outages and maintenance of key gas infrastructure, and a lack of sufficient supply from Russia – are driving broader energy market turbulence in Europe.

While liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments are providing some additional supply to European gas markets, their timeliness is limited by longer transportation times than for pipelines. Underground storage remains the principal source of short-term flexibility for gas markets in Europe. However, lower than average inventory levels (around 50% full as of early January, compared with an average of nearly 70% over the past decade) create further security of supply concerns, especially in the event of late winter cold spells. This is why uncertainty over prices and supply remains high in early January, with most of the heating season still to come.

We see strong elements of ‘artificial tightness’ in European gas markets, which appears to be due to the behaviour of Russia’s state-controlled gas supplier. Unlike other pipeline suppliers – such as Algeria, Azerbaijan and Norway – Russia has reduced its exports to Europe by 25% in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared with the same period in 2020 – and by 22% compared with its 2019 levels. And this is despite the exceptionally high market prices for natural gas that we have seen in recent months.

Against today’s low baseline, we estimate that Russia could increase deliveries to Europe by at least one-third, or over 3 billion cubic metres per month. This equates to almost 10% of the European Union’s average monthly gas consumption – and would be the equivalent of a new LNG tanker delivering a full cargo of natural gas to Europe every day. Together with the current high level of LNG inflow, this would provide significant relief to European gas markets.

The impact on electricity markets

The natural gas market turmoil has spilled over into European electricity markets, which typically rely on gas as a marginal fuel and are therefore affected when it experiences high prices and volatility. This has been exacerbated by lower than average hydropower output and lower nuclear output highlighting the need for adequate investment in sources of baseload supply and flexibility.

Higher carbon prices have also played a role in pushing up electricity prices, but this needs to be kept in context. We estimate that the effect on European electricity prices of the sharp spike in natural gas prices is nearly eight times bigger than the effect of the increase in carbon prices.

Although wind power was unusually below average during the European summer, wind and solar PV provided valuable contributions to meeting European electricity demand in the fourth quarter of 2021. Wind power generation increased by 3% and solar by 20% compared with the same period a year earlier. 

Lessons for the future

While today’s market fluctuations cannot be traced back to climate policies, that does not mean that the road to net zero emissions will be smooth. As the IEA has been repeatedly warning for years – including in our recent World Energy Outlook 2021 – there is a looming risk of further market turbulence if we fail to address the current fundamental imbalance in energy investment. The world has not been investing enough to meet its future energy needs – and that remains the case today. Clean energy investment is gradually picking up, but remains far short of what is required to meet rising demand for energy services in a sustainable way. It would need to triple by 2030 to get the world on track for a pathway consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 °C.

Much stronger investment in low-carbon energy technologies including renewables, energy efficiency and nuclear power is the way out of this impasse. But this needs to happen quickly or global energy markets will face a turbulent and volatile period ahead. Energy efficiency is a particularly powerful tool for governments, businesses and consumers to reduce their exposure to fuel market volatility and enhance resilience.

The interdependence between gas and electricity security is not going to disappear anytime soon. Gas is expected to retain a major role as a source of flexibility and back-up for many years to come, especially in economies – such as Europe – that have large seasonal variations in demand.

In Europe, governments should make natural gas storage part of their security of supply risk assessments, at both a national and regional level, including risks linked to the control of storage by entities from non-EU countries. And regulations should be improved to ensure that storage levels are adequate to cover end-user needs, with mandatory minimum storage obligations assigned to all commercial operators with gas retail portfolios. In addition, provisions on transparency and congestion management can help to ensure optimal utilisation of available storage capacity.

On a global level, scaling up domestically sourced low-carbon energy supplies provides an opportunity to bring down emissions while at the same time tackling energy security issues related to fossil fuel imports and market volatility. However, potential energy security vulnerabilities do not disappear in a renewables-rich and more electrified energy system. Policy makers need to pay close attention to new clean energy supply chains, in particular the geographical concentration of many critical minerals – such as lithium, cobalt and rare earth elements – that are crucial components of many clean energy technologies.

In my view, today’s situation underlines the fact that energy systems face significant risks if they rely too much on one supplier for a key element. Today, it is natural gas; tomorrow, it could be something else, such as lithium. This is why I’m urging governments to act now to tackle today’s energy security challenges and those of the future.