中国石化新闻网讯 据天然气加工网站11月2日报道 美国天然气期货周二小幅上涨约3%，此前三个交易日合约下跌约16%后，卖空者获利回吐，全球价格上涨使美国液化天然气出口需求保持强劲。尽管产量不断上升，预计下周天气将比先前预期的温和，取暖需求也将下降，但价格仍出现上涨。

　　10月，全球天然气价格飙升至创纪录高点，因为公用事业公司争相购买液化天然气货物，以补充欧洲的低库存，并满足亚洲不断增长的需求。美国期货价格也上涨，10月初达到12年来高点，预计液化天然气需求将在未来几个月保持强劲。

　　然而，与海外市场相比，美国的价格涨幅受到抑制，因为美国有足够的冬季天然气储备和充足的产量来满足国内和出口需求。欧洲和亚洲的天然气价格约为美国的五倍。分析师预计，到11月冬季取暖季节开始时，美国天然气库存将超过3.6太亿立方英尺。他们表示，这将是一个舒适的水平，尽管低于5年平均水平。

　　美国目前的库存比每年这个时候的五年平均水平低约3%。在欧洲，分析师表示库存比正常水平低15%左右。美国东部夏令时上午6:57（格林威治标准时间10:57），天然气期货价格上涨15.3美分，涨幅3.0%，至5.339美元/百万英热单位。

　　周一，该合约以10月21日以来的最低收盘价收盘。

　　数据提供商Refinitiv表示，美国48个州11月份的平均产量为949亿立方英尺/日，高于10月份的941亿立方英尺/日。相比之下，2019年11月的月度记录为954亿立方英尺/日。Refinitiv预计，包括出口在内的美国天然气平均需求将在本周和下周维持在964亿立方英尺/日左右。下周的预测远低于Refinitiv周一的预测。

　　到目前为止，11月份流向美国液化天然气出口工厂的天然气平均流量为110亿立方英尺/日，高于10月份的105亿立方英尺/日。相比之下，4月份的月记录为115亿立方英尺/日。

　　由于欧洲的天然气价格接近23美元/百万英热单位，亚洲接近29美元/百万英热单位，美国则约为5美元/百万英热单位，交易员表示，全球买家将继续购买美国能够生产的所有液化天然气。但无论全球天然气价格上涨多高，美国每天只能将约105亿立方英尺/日的天然气转化为液化天然气。流向出口工厂的其余天然气用于为生产液化天然气的设备提供燃料。

　　王磊 摘译自 天然气加工

　　原文如下：

　　U.S. natgas futures rise 3% on profit taking, strong LNG demand

　　U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 3% on Tuesday as short sellers took some profits after the contract dropped about 16% during the prior three sessions and as higher global prices keep demand for U.S. LNG exports strong. That price increase came despite rising output and forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand next week than previously expected.

　　In October, global gas prices soared to record highs as utilities scramble for LNG cargoes to refill low stockpiles in Europe and meet rising demand in Asia, where energy shortfalls have caused power blackouts in China. U.S. futures also climbed, reaching a 12-year high in early October, on expectations LNG demand will remain strong for many months.

　　Price gains in the U.S., however, were restrained compared with overseas markets because the United States has more than enough gas in storage for winter and ample production to meet domestic and export demand. Prices in Europe and Asia were about five times higher than in the U.S. Analysts expect U.S. gas inventories will top 3.6 Tft3 by the start of the winter heating season in November, which they said would be a comfortable level even though it falls shy of the five-year average of 3.7 Tft3.

　　U.S. stockpiles were currently about 3% below the five-year average for this time of year. In Europe, analysts said stockpiles were about 15% below normal. Front-month gas futures rose 15.3 cents, or 3.0%, to $5.339 per MMBtu at 6:57 a.m. EDT (1057 GMT).

　　On Monday, the contract closed at its lowest since Oct. 21.

　　Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states averaged 94.9 Bft3/d so far in November, up from 94.1 Bft3/d in October. That compares with a monthly record of 95.4 Bft3/d in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would hold around 96.4 Bft3/d this week and next. The forecast for next week was much lower than what Refinitiv projected on Monday.

　　The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged 11.0 Bft3/d so far in November, up from 10.5 Bft3/d in October. That compares with a monthly record of 11.5 Bft3/d in April.

　　With gas prices near $23 per MMBtu in Europe and $29 in Asia, versus around $5 in the U.S., traders said buyers around the world will keep purchasing all the LNG the U.S. can produce. But no matter how high global gas prices rise, the U.S. has the capacity to turn only about 10.5 Bft3/d of gas into LNG. The rest of the gas flowing to the export plants is used to fuel equipment that produces the LNG.