据油气新闻12月7日消息称，全球深水行业将继续增长:到2025年，产量预计将达到1450万桶/天，其中石油和天然气的产量将强劲增长。

在经济低迷的几年里，深水石油公司面临挑战，不得不通过削减成本、缩短周期和降低盈亏来重塑自身。它已变得更加强大，并为下一阶段的投资做好了准备——其中大部分将投资于更深的水域、新领域和新国家。巴西高产的桑托斯盆地继续在投资和生产上保持领先地位，但是在过去十年中，莫桑比克、以色列、埃及和圭亚那的重大发现已经发生了转变。虽然项目的类型和质量已经发生了变化，但深水项目依然存在。

深水项目是石油和天然气工业的重大增长主题之一：它通常与大型的、昂贵的和复杂的长周期项目相关，但是对于那些愿意承担风险的人来说是非常值得的。

一般来说，深水投资的平均回报率为23%。但是差异很大：回报率在20%的资产数量低于15％。

最好的回报来自于小型石油项目，这些项目与当地设施有紧密的联系，而与石油相比，天然气的系统性回报更低。

在过去10年里，天然气占已发现总量的58%，而且这一比例还将进一步提高。目前只有不到一半是商业性的：由于市场限制和高昂的成本，许多重大的天然气发现仍未得到开发。

尽管取得了成功，但深水钻井的失误代价高昂。干井作业或项目延期可能会破坏经济效益，因为运营商无法像开采陆上资源那样轻松地增加或减少作业。

到2023年，超深水油田的产量将占到深水油田总产量的一半以上-其中大部分增长将来自巴西、圭亚那和美国的优质石油资产。

曹海斌 摘译自 油气新闻

原文如下：

Deepwater rising: The state of the global deepwater industry

The global deepwater industry is set to continue to grow: output is expected to reach 14.5 million boe/d by 2025, with strong growth in both oil and gas.

A challenging few years during the downturn forced deepwater to reinvent itself by cutting costs, cycle times and breakevens. It has emerged much stronger and is ready for the next phase of investment – much of which will be in deeper waters and in new plays and new countries. Brazil will continue to lead on investment and production in its prolific Santos Basin, but major discoveries over the past decade have been transformational for Mozambique, Israel, Egypt and Guyana. And while the type and quality of projects have changed, deepwater is here to stay.

Deepwater is one of the great growth themes of the oil and gas industry. It's often associated with large, expensive and complex long-cycle projects, but can be highly rewarding for those willing to take on the risks.

Typically, deepwater investment returns average 23%. But there is a wide variation: for one in five assets, the number is below 15%.

The best returns come from smaller oil projects with quick tie-backs to host facilities, whereas gas has systematically lower returns in comparison to oil.

Over the past 10 years, gas has made up 58% of volumes discovered, and it is set to become more prominent. Less than half of that is currently commercial: many major gas discoveries remain undeveloped due to market constraints and high costs.

Despite its successes, mistakes in the deepwater are costly. A run of dry holes or a project delay can destroy economics – with operators unable to ramp up or down activity as easily as for onshore resources.

By 2023, ultra-deepwater should account for more than half of overall deepwater production – with much of this growth coming from quality oil assets in Brazil, Guyana and the US.